Canada’s real estate market stands out globally for its diversity, resilience, and dynamism. Urban hubs like Vancouver, Toronto, Edmonton, Hamilton, Calgary, and Montreal have been seen some of the more competitive and desirable locations for buyers and investors. These cities reflect a mix of economic prosperity, demographic shifts, and lifestyle preferences that fuel demand despite challenges like affordability and limited housing inventory. As the market transitions through 2024 and looks ahead to 2025, understanding the nuances of these cities provides valuable insights for stakeholders across the spectrum.

While evaluating different housing locations, there are a few factors that can help in determining the directional trends of the market.

Indicators for Evaluating Housing Markets

The performance of a real estate market is influenced by multiple factors that collectively define its health and trajectory. Here are some of the important indicators:

  • Price Trends: Fluctuations in average home prices highlight buyer demand and the overall affordability landscape. Sharp increases often signal high demand with limited supply, while stabilization can indicate market corrections.
  • Sales Activity: The number of homes sold versus listed reflects the market’s pace. Higher sales activity usually signifies robust demand and economic vitality.
  • Affordability Ratios: The comparison between median household incomes and housing costs helps measure how accessible homes are to average buyers.
  • Economic Growth: Real estate thrives in regions with stable job markets, strong GDP growth, and expanding industries. Cities with diverse economies are typically more resilient during downturns.
  • Population Growth: Migration and urbanization trends fuel housing demand. Immigration and interprovincial migration heavily influence Canada’s real estate landscape.
  • Inventory Levels: The number of homes available relative to demand plays a vital role in pricing and buyer competition.
  • SNLR: Sales to new listing ratio measures the proportion of homes sales compared to the number of new listings and is a great indicator for identifying the market balance.

An interplay of these parameters presents deep insights into the health and potential of real estate markets.  Among these, price trends and the SNLR stand out as two of the more indicative metrics.

Price Trends

Price trends reflect changes in the average cost of homes over time, offering insights into buyer demand, affordability, and market momentum. Price trends can offer the insights such as:

  • Consistent price appreciation signals strong market demand and economic health.
  • Sharp declines might indicate a market correction or oversupply.
  • Stable prices could suggest balanced demand and supply.

Tracking these trends helps property stakeholders—buyers, investors, and policymakers—make informed decisions about timing and strategy.

Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR)

The SNLR measures the proportion of home sales compared to the number of new listings within a given period. It is a powerful tool for identifying market balance:

  • A balanced market occurs when the SNLR is between 40% and 60%. This indicates that the number of buyers and the number of homes available for sale are roughly the same.
  • A seller’s market, with SNLRs exceeding 60%, indicates high demand relative to supply, often leading to price increases. In other words, the number of homes available for sale are less than the demand.
  • A buyer’s market, with SNLRs below 40%, shows greater supply than demand, often resulting in price stabilization or declines. In other words, the number of options for buyers is great.

The two offer significant information about the real estate trend in a given period of time. Further, as we analyze the SNLR alongside price trends, we gain a clearer picture of market conditions.

  • A rising SNLR along with price growth suggests a competitive market with robust buyer activity.
  • A declining SNLR amidst steady prices may indicate increasing inventory and a potential shift to a buyer-friendly environment.

 With these two indicators in mind, let’s look at few hot markets in Canada and the shift in the market for late 2024 (if any)!

Analyzing Canada’s Growing Markets

Each of Canada’s leading real estate markets offers distinct opportunities and challenges. Below is an evaluation of the mentioned cities based on key metrics.

Greater Vancouver

As one of Canada’s most expensive housing markets, Vancouver remains highly attractive due to its scenic beauty, economic opportunities, and international appeal. In early 2024, the average home price exceeded CAD 1.2 million. In late 2024, average home prices stayed in a similar range (around CAD 1,250,000), however, the sales numbers suggest a shift in the market towards a balanced market with the SNLR at around 48%.

Greater Toronto

Toronto, the largest city in Canada, has always been a real estate powerhouse. The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) continues to see average home prices at approximately CAD 1.1 million in late 2024, with the condo market accounting for significant activity. Toronto’s real estate faces dual pressures: intense demand from a growing immigrant population and challenges related to affordability. To address these, developers have focused on high-density housing. Late 2024, specially October, saw a jump in the sales – a possible effect of rate cuts in previous months. The average prices for the month were around CAD 1,135,000 with the SNLR at around 43%, indicating a balanced market.

Edmonton

Edmonton, Alberta’s capital city, offers a mix of affordability and steady growth, making it an attractive option for both buyers and investors. In 2024, the average home price hovered around CAD 400,000, significantly lower than in larger markets like Toronto and Vancouver. While affordability remains a key advantage, the city faces challenges with rising construction costs and ensuring sufficient housing supply to meet demand. To no surprise, this has resulted in Edmonton as a Seller’s market as of late 2024 with average home prices at around CAD 440,000 with the SNLR at 85%.

Hamilton – Burlington

Hamilton has emerged as a viable alternative to Toronto for first-time buyers and investors. Its affordability, with average prices in 2024 starting around CAD 800,000, and proximity to the GTA make it highly attractive. Once known as a steel city, Hamilton has successfully diversified its economy, adding technology and arts sectors to its industrial base. This transformation has bolstered demand, especially among younger home buyers. In later parts of 2024, the average home prices teetered around CAD 820,000 with a balanced market (SNLR 45%).

Calgary

Calgary offers one of the best value propositions among major Canadian cities. With average home prices near CAD 620,000 in late 2024, it attracts buyers looking for affordability without compromising on urban amenities. The city’s economic recovery, driven by a resurgent energy sector and growing tech industries, has boosted in-migration. Calgary also benefits from a strong inventory of new homes, helping balance supply and demand. With the SNLR at 67% in October 2024 and 55% in September, Calgary has maintained its balanced market.

Montreal

Montreal’s blend of affordability and culture has made it a magnet for buyers. The city saw average home prices around CAD 630,000 in late 2024, making it more accessible than Vancouver or Toronto. Montreal faces rising demand from international buyers, but concerns over affordability have begun to surface. The SNLR has increased to 61%, pushing Montreal into a Seller’s market.

Expected shifts in the real estate market in 2025

With a cut in the interest rates in late 2024, the housing market in 2025 is expected to pick up pace in several locations across Canada. With improved buying conditions, first-time homebuyers are more likely to jump into the real-estate market. Preferences in type of homes, along with locations based on potential impacts of climate change and human activity are a factor of concern for a lot of first-time and move-up buyers.

As we move towards 2025, the hotspots here, along with several other locations are set to see growth in the real-estate market. Factors of affordability, buyer needs, and borrowing rates are going to be a big motivator, in spite of any potential climbs in the home prices.

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